if flip = 1 then add 1 to card field heads else add 1 to card field tails
put the value of ((card field heads / card field toss) * 100)into card field percent
choose pencil tool
set linesize to 1
set the numberFormat to "000"
put (200 - (200 * ( the value of card field percent / 100))) into it
click at 300 + (card field toss), trunc (it)
set the numberFormat to ".00"
end repeat
choose browse tool
end mouseUp
-- part 6 (button)
-- low flags: 00
-- high flags: 8003
-- rect: left=385 top=231 right=253 bottom=485
-- title width / last selected line: 0
-- icon id / first selected line: 0 / 0
-- text alignment: 1
-- font id: 0
-- text size: 12
-- style flags: 0
-- line height: 16
-- part name: CLEAR
----- HyperTalk script -----
on mouseUp
put 0 into card field toss
put 0 into card field heads
put 0 into card field tails
put 0 into card field percent
choose select tool
drag from 300,21 to 507,200
doMenu "Pickup"
choose browse tool
end mouseUp
-- part 7 (button)
-- low flags: 00
-- high flags: 8003
-- rect: left=205 top=315 right=337 bottom=256
-- title width / last selected line: 0
-- icon id / first selected line: 0 / 0
-- text alignment: 1
-- font id: 0
-- text size: 12
-- style flags: 0
-- line height: 16
-- part name: NEXT
----- HyperTalk script -----
on mouseUp
go to next card
end mouseUp
-- part 8 (button)
-- low flags: 00
-- high flags: 8003
-- rect: left=149 top=314 right=337 bottom=199
-- title width / last selected line: 0
-- icon id / first selected line: 0 / 0
-- text alignment: 1
-- font id: 0
-- text size: 12
-- style flags: 0
-- line height: 16
-- part name: PREV.
----- HyperTalk script -----
on mouseUp
go back
end mouseUp
-- part contents for background part 1
----- text -----
COIN TOSS
-- part contents for background part 2
----- text -----
Although simple in concept, the coin toss exercise can reveal some interesting relationships in the world of statistics. When activated, the program will run through 100 coin tosses. Clicking on the activate button a second time will continue the program for another one hundred tosses. How long does it take to reach 50% probability of heads or tails appearing? How many tosses constitutes a statistically significant number? If after two tosses the percent of heads is 50% does that confirm the hypothesis that the probability of heads appearing is indeed 50%? Write your responses below and then scroll down to see the answers.
ANSWERS:
Answer #1. A 50% probability could be reached after two tosses. However after the third toss,the value will either be 66% or 33%... too far from the expected value to draw any conclusion. Clearly one can only derive a usable hypothesis when the probability remains stable and this occurs only after many tosses.
Answer #2. The wide swings in the percent of heads appearing do not settle down usually until after 40 or so tosses. Even then, some deviation from 50% can be seen. Certainly more than 40 tosses are necessary toe stablish the strong probability that heads will appear 50% of the time.
Answer #3. No it does not because on the very next toss, the probability deviates far from the theoretical value. Only when the variation is minimized can a probability be learned.
